Statements on statistical winning probabilities and odds of new or existing lottery products must be 100% correct, because lotteries live from their reliability. Winning promises that you make to your customers must be kept. On the other hand, in marketing you may only make statements that stand up to solid mathematical verification. But that is not so easy. In addition to well-founded statistics, a lot of technical understanding and precise knowledge of the products are required.
When modelling the products, it is necessary to keep your own risks in mind at all times. For example, you should avoid the risk of over-performing the plan, i.e. making profits in excess of the plan. But how can such a risk be assessed? What means can be used to cushion such risks? How do risks develop over a period of time or over a whole series of draws? These are questions that can be calculated and explained using mathematics and statistics.
All this can be found at lottery companies in the product development and gaming operations departments. But as is the case with complex, security-relevant topics: An external safeguarding by a second clever head excludes sources of error in the best possible way.
We prepare a comprehensive mathematical and statistical analysis for your existing and new products. For this purpose, we map a detailed profit plan together with you and determine the associated profit probabilities as well as the theoretical and forecast-related profit rates.
Whether single picks, partial or full system games, innovative products such as geo lotteries, we reliably calculate the relevant probabilities and expected values for you. Depending on the product, we include other relevant statistical information in the calculation, such as population density to determine regional winning probabilities in the case of geo lotteries. We support you not only in detecting errors in the applied mathematics. We also answer with you the questions of which statements in marketing are permissible and covered by actual winning probabilities.
We help you to keep an eye on and minimise the risks involved in the operation of your products. By means of complex statistical simulation methods, we determine the probabilities of over-schedule games as well as the ruin probabilities in the course of a defined draw period and depending on different scenarios of the tickets sold.
We work with you to develop strategies for reducing risks, such as the appropriate use of security funds or hedging variants involving reinsurers. In this way, we create the necessary transparency with regard to your risks together with you.
The mathematical-statistical analyses result in comprehensive documentation in which the results and the underlying procedures are described in detail. This gives you a solid basis for your own assessment, for the orientation of marketing as well as for the accreditation of your product by the supervisory authorities.
All in all, a challenging topic. A topic in which many state lottery companies trust our mathematics expertise. And with it, you also play it safe.